Shopify stores just had their best BFCM ever. 2026 will be bigger, and more expensive.

Shopify merchants sold $14.6B over BFCM 2025, up 27%, about three times the growth of US online spend overall. Ad costs grew with it: the median brand paid 84% more per thousand Meta impressions on Black Friday than in September.

$14.6BShopify merchants' BFCM 2025 sales, up 27% year on yearShopify

+84%Meta CPM on Black Friday vs September, median brandLebesgue

2xRepeat rate of existing customers vs new ones after Black FridayOptimove

~60%Of shoppers start researching deals in October or early NovemberBCG

What's inside

10 Meta Ads moves, in the order you need them

Each move says why it matters, with the data behind it, and exactly what to do in Shopify and Meta Ads Manager.

Phase 1

Fix your signal before you scale

Now to mid-November · moves 1 to 4

01Audit your tracking before spend spikes
02Finish your tests before November
03Build peak audiences from your Shopify data
04Turn your best customers into your best lookalikes

Phase 2

Win the peak

Black Friday to Christmas · moves 5 to 8

05Launch now, then stop touching it
06Brief creators and go vertical
07Spend peak budget on purchase intent
08Lean on retention when ad costs spike

Phase 3

Keep growing after Cyber Monday

Late December to January · moves 9 and 10

09Keep spending into January
10Turn peak data into your 2027 plan

The data chapters

The context behind the moves

Chapter 01

BFCM 2025 by the numbers

Shopify's record season, Adobe's day-by-day 2026 forecast, and why Cyber Week's five days carry 17% of the holiday.

Chapter 02

How shoppers behave

They plan early, wait for deals and know what a real discount looks like. What ~30% off means for your pricing.

Chapter 03

Three shifts

AI shopping referrals up 693%, mobile checkout at 57.5% of Cyber Monday, and creators driving a fifth of holiday revenue.

Chapter 04

Black Friday by market

Intent to shop across the US, UK, Germany, France, Spain, Italy and Portugal, with planned spend per shopper.

Chapter 05

The peak calendar

From today to the end of January: when to freeze tests, go live, and where CPMs started climbing last year.

Chapter 06

How Clustie helps

Three predictive audiences from your Shopify order history, each a seed and a lookalike, mapped to the moves.

Peak campaigns should be live by 30 October

Get the playbook now and have your tracking, audiences and campaign structure ready before Meta CPMs start to climb.

Get the free playbook